Ricky’s Picks For The French Open Tennis Semi • Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal of Spain plays Kei Nishikori of Japan during their men’s quarter final match during the French Open tennis tournament at Roland Garros in Paris, France, 04 June 2019. EPA-EFE/CAROLINE BLUMBERG

 

 

By Ricky Dimon

 

During the heyday of their dominance, a Grand Slam semifinal between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal would have been thought of as some sort of punishment inflicted by an unfair draw.

 

But it’s 2019 now, and any reinstallment of arguably the most awesome rivalry in tennis history has to be treated as bonus. No matter that it will take place in the semis instead of a final. Given the current state of things in the men’s game, a Federer-Nadal semifinal feels just about right.

 

That will be the case when the two all-time greats collide for the 39th time in their careers at the French Open on Friday afternoon. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 23-15, including 12-2 on clay and 5-0 at the French. But it’s not all bad news for Federer; not at all. The 37-year-old has won five straight at the Spaniard’s expense dating back to 2015, including in the 2017 Aussie Open title match to go along with a trio of victories at Masters 1000s and one at the 500-point tournament in Basel.

 

Virtual home-court advantage goes to Nadal this time around, even though the Roland Garros crowd will surely throw its support behind Federer. The 11-time FO champion is an outrageous 91-2 lifetime at this event, losing only to Robin Soderling (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2015) before withdrawing prior to the third round in 2016. Nadal has been up to his usual tricks with routine defeats of Yannick Hanfmann, Yannick Maden, David Goffin (in four sets), Juan Ignacio Londero, and Kei Nishikori.

 

Federer has also surrendered only a single set this fortnight. The world No. 3 trounced Lorenzo Sonego, Oscar Otte, Casper Ruud, and Leonardo Mayer in swift fashion before beating Stan Wawrinka 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 during quarterfinal action on Tuesday. He is now 9-1 on clay this year, a record that also includes mostly successful returns at Masters in Madrid and Rome.

 

“I (have already) exceeded my expectations here,” Federer said following his victory over Wawrinka. “You know, after missing the French for so many years it’s nice to be back in the semis. So that’s a great feeling…. Now I have the match with Rafa, and I’m clearly excited. I hope I can recover well in the next couple days, which I’m sure I will, and I’ll give it my best shot on Friday.”

 

“I really expect that he (is) gonna play aggressive, changing rhythms, going to the net,” Nadal noted. “That’s my feeling, that he (is) gonna try to play that way, because he’s playing well and he has the tennis to make that happen.

 

“I have to be solid; I have to hit the ball enough strong to [not] allow him to do the things from good positions. I need to let him play from difficult positions, so from there he (is) gonna have less chances to go to the net or to play his aggressive game.”

 

The world No. 2 has almost always been able to execute that plan on clay, pinning Federer on the baseline and exploiting his one-handed backhand with heavy topspin forehands. It is difficult to see anything different transpiring in this one, as even though Federer’s return to the red stuff has been impressive it still doesn’t include any wins over anyone in the top 14.

 

This will not be a complete rout; the Swiss is too good for that. But on this surface it likely won’t go the distance.

 

Pick: Nadal in 4

 

Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on twitter at @Dimonator.