Ricky’s picks for Day 1 of the U.S. Open, including Shelton vs. Thiem

The 2024 U.S. Open gets underway on Monday, when Novak Djokovic, Aryna Sabalenka, and Coco Gauff are among those in action. Ben Shelton and Dominic Thiem are playing the first match in Arthur Ashe Stadium during the afternoon session, while another intriguing contest pits Holger Rune against Brandon Nakashima.

Here are my picks for two of Monday’s best matchups.

(13) Ben Shelton vs. (WC) Dominic Thiem

Shelton and Thiem are effectively finishing what they started last summer in New York. A second-round meeting at Flushing Meadows resulted in a Thiem retirement due to illness with Shelton leading 7-6(1), 1-0. Their only other showdown came last spring at the Estoril Open, where Thiem was playing on his preferred clay-court surface and cruised 6-2, 6-2.

Although he is just 30 years old, Thiem is retiring at home in Austria (Vienna) at the end of this season. He has been unable to recover fully from 2021 wrist surgery. From a relative standpoint, Shelton’s career is just now taking flight. At 21 years old the American has already climbed to 13th in the rankings. His Grand Slam acumen already includes a quarterfinal at the 2023 Aussie Open and a semifinal at the 2023 U.S. Open. Thiem won this tournament in 2020, but the 2020 version of Thiem ain’t walkin’ through that door.

Pick: Shelton in 3

(15) Holger Rune vs. Brandon Nakashima

Rune and Nakashima will be facing each other for the third time in their careers. Nakashima has won both of their previous tilts; at the 2021 NextGen ATP Finals (four sets) and at the 2023 Shanghai Masters (straight sets). Rune was in a massive slump when they squared off last fall, but he is playing well right now. The world No. 15 has won multiple matches at four straight tournaments, including a round-of-16 effort at the All-England Club and a semifinal showing in Cincinnati.

Nakashima is in fine form, too, having reached the Cincinnati Masters third round as a qualifier (defeated Denis Shapovalov and Tommy Paul before succumbing to Andrey Rublev). However, the world No. 48 has advanced past the third round of a major only once (2022 Wimbledon fourth round). On the other hand, Rune is a three-time slam quarterfinalist and has reached fourth rounds three other times. Look for Rune to pocket his first win in this matchup.

Pick: Rune in 4

Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.