Ricky’s picks for the U.S. Open quarterfinals: Zverev vs. Fritz

The stakes could not be higher–unless it was the final–in the bottom half of the U.S. Open draw, where Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz will square off on Tuesday.

Although it may not be the final, Zverev and Fritz require just two more wins to make it to championship Sunday. Each one has every chance to do so, too, as their side of the bracket seen Novak Djokovic depart (lost to Alexei Popyrin in the third round). Andrey Rublev, Hubert Hurkacz, and Capser Ruud are also out. Whoever wins Tuesday’s match will be favored to reach the final.

This will be a rematch of the Wimbledon fourth round from earlier this summer, when Fritz came back from two sets down to prevail 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(3), 6-3. The American now trails the head-to-head series by a competitive 5-4 margin, although he leads 3-2 on hard courts (ied 2-2 on outdoor hard).

Another fun one should be in the cards.

Zverev boasts a 56-16 record in 2024 with a title in Rome and a runner-up showing at the French Open, succumbing to Carlos Alcaraz. That marked his second major final appearance and the second in which he lost in five sets, having previously fallen to Dominic Thiem in a decisive tiebreaker four years ago at Flushing Meadows. The fourth-ranked German is two wins away from another final after beating Maximilian Marterer, Alexandre Muller, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, and Brandon Nakashima.

Fritz is 42-16 this season with titles in Delray Beach and Eastbourne to go along with QF performances at the Aussie Open and Wimbledon. The world No. 12 is back in the quarters of another major–and for the second straight summer in New York City–following defeats Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Matteo Berrettini, Joao Comesana, and Casper Ruud. Only Ruud managed to take a set in those matches.

Although Zverev was dealing with a knee problem at the All-England Club earlier this summer, Fritz had already taken control of that match in the fifth set before the injury started to be a real factor. As that result indicates, this has not been a bad matchup for Fritz in the past even though he is the perennially lower-ranked player.

Fritz is an underdog on paper but he should arguably be the favorite in this one. He beat Zverev at Wimbledon has been in dominant form this fortnight, plus he has home-court advantage.

Pick: Fritz in 5

Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.