Ricky’s picks for the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals in Turin

The penultimate week of the tennis season is upon us. Or, if you don’t count the Davis Cup Finals later this month, it’s the last week.

Inalpi Arena in Turin, Italy will be the home of the Nitto ATP Finals for the next eight days. It welcomes the top eight players in the world, from No. 1 seed Jannik Sinner down to No. 8 seed Andrey Rublev. Sinner is looking to go one step farther in front of the home crowd after finishing runner-up to Novak Djokovic last year.

Let’s break down the year-end championship in Turin.

Nitto ATP Finals
Where: Turin, Italy
Surface: Indoor hard
Top seed: Jannik Sinner
2023 champion: Novak Djokovic (not playing)
Points: 200 for RR win, 400 for SF win, 500 for final win
Prize money: $331,000 participation fee, $2,237,200 for a final win, $4,881,500 for being an undefeated champion

Nastase Group
Jannik Sinner
Daniil Medvedev
Taylor Fritz
Alex de Minaur

Newcombe Group
Alexander Zverev
Carlos Alcaraz
Casper Ruud
Andrey Rublev

This round-robin draw sets up appears to set up very well for Zverev. The second-ranked German is an impressive 5-5 all time against Alcaraz and 2-0 indoors. Ruud has been in a massive slump since the end of the clay-court swing; he may not win a single match at this event. Zverev is 6-3 lifetime against Rublev and made quick 6-4, 6-4 work of the Russian in their most recent encounter at this same tournament last fall.

In the other group, Fritz vs. De Minaur could be the key match in terms of semifinal qualification–especially if Medvedev’s current struggles continue.

Picks

Nastase Group
Sinner over De Minaur in 2
Fritz over Medvedev in 3
Sinner over Fritz in 2
De Minaur over Medvedev in 3
Sinner over Medvedev in 2
De Minaur over Fritz in 3

Newcombe Group
Zverev over Rublev in 2
Alcaraz over Ruud in 2
Alcaraz over Zverev in 3
Rublev over Ruud in 3
Zverev over Ruud in 2
Rublev over Alcaraz in 3

Semifinals: Sinner over Alcaraz in 3 and Zverev over De Minaur

Final: Sinner over Zverev in 3

Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.