Ricky’s picks for Wednesday in Turin, including Alcaraz vs. Rublev

Day 4 at Nitto ATP Finals will see the Group John Newcombe participants play their second round-robin matches. Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud are 1-0, while Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev face a borderline must-win situation.

Here are my previews and picks for the two matchups.

(2) Alexander Zverev vs. (6) Casper Ruud

Zverev came into this tournament as one of the top three title favorites and after one match he is looking at least that good. The reigning Paris champion took care of Rublev 6-4, 6-4 to maintain his stellar form. Zverev has now won 15 matches all time at the year-end championship, including titles in 2018 and 2021.

Up next for Zverev is a sixth meeting with Ruud, who trails the head-to-head series 3-2. Their only previous indoor meeting came at the 2021 Paris Masters, where the German prevailed 7-5, 6-4. Ruud did well to beat Alcaraz on Monday in Turin, but the Spaniard was well less than 100 percent due to a sickness. A healthy, red-hot Zverev will almost certainly prove to be a much tougher test.

Pick: Zverev in 2

(3) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (8) Andrey Rublev

Even at 100 percent, Alcaraz doesn’t inspire much confidence at the Nitto ATP Finals. The 21-year-old went 2-2 at the 2023 event, losing to Zverev in round-robin and to Novak Djokovic in the semis. He simply isn’t great on indoor hard courts–at least not yet in the relatively early stages of his career. Now he has a sickness piled on to his plate, which clearly impacted him against Ruud.

It doesn’t bode well for Alcaraz moving forward, as a matchup with Rublev looms on Wednesday. They have split their two previous encounters; Alcaraz won last year in Turin, but Rublev prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 at this season’s Madrid Masters on his eventual way to the title. The Russian wasn’t terrible against Zverev in his opener this week, and right now Alcaraz is an easier opponent than Zverev. An upset is possible.

Pick: Rublev in 3

Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.