Friday marks the conclusion of round-robin competition at the Nitto ATP Finals. All four players in Group John Newcombe are still alive for semifinal spots. Alexander Zverev faces Carlos Alcaraz during the afternoon session before Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev clash at night.
Here are my previews and picks for the two matchups.
(2) Alexander Zverev vs. (3) Carlos Alcaraz
Zverev and Alcaraz will be squaring off for the 11th time in their careers, with the head-to-head series tied at five wins apiece. Both of their previous indoor hard-court contests have gone the way of Zverev, who prevailed 6-3, 6-3 at the 2021 Vienna event and 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-4 last fall in Turin.
Alcaraz beat Zverev in the French Open final this spring, but that was on clay. Zverev is the better indoor player and is also in superior form at the moment. The second-ranked German won the Paris Masters and is undefeated so far in Turin with victories over Rublev and Ruud. Alcaraz has mostly struggled since winning Wimbledon and is 1-1 so far this week (lost to Ruud, beat Rublev). Look for Zverev to pocket another win and get the top semifinal seed from this group.
Pick: Zverev in 3
(6) Casper Ruud vs. (8) Andrey Rublev
Ruud was the runner-up at this event in 2022 and his win over Alcaraz has him in position to make a return trip to the semis–despite his setback against Zverev. However, a matchup with Rublev isn’t easy–despite the Russian’s 0-2 record. Rublev leads the head-to-head series 5-2, although both of Ruud’s wins have come in Turin.
It is true that the world No. 9 is winless this week, but he has not played poorly. He now faces an easier test in Ruud compared to Zverev and Alcaraz. The Norwegian is 3-9 in his last 12 matches dating back to the U.S. Open. Rublev may not advance to the semis, but he should be able to get a win under his belt before he departs Turin and heads to the offseason.
Pick: Rublev in 3
Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.