Ricky’s pick for the Australian Open final: Sabalenka vs. Keys

It will be world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. world No. 14 Madison Keys in the final of the Australian Open on Saturday night.

For much of the tournament–up until Thursday–it looked like we would see No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the championship match. Keys, however, had something to say about that. She knocked off second seed and five-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek 5-7, 6-1, 7-6(10-8) in a dramatic semifinal, saving one match point on Swiatek’s own serve in the process.

Now the two-time defending Aussie Open champion stands in Keys’ way of her first major title. It marks a sixth meeting between two of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour, with Sabalenka holding a 4-1 advantage in the head-to-head series. Their most memorable matchup has come in the 2023 U.S. Open semifinals, when Keys served for a straight-set win and also led by a break in the third set only to succumb 0-6, 7-6(1), 7-6(10-5).

This is a new and improved Keys that will be facing Sabalenka on Saturday. The American changed her serve, her racket, and her strings this past offseason and to say that it has paid dividends so far in 2025 would be a gross understatement. She is 13-1 with a title in Adelaide and victories this fortnight over Ann Li, Elena Gabriela Ruse, Danielle Collins, Elena Rybakina, Elina Svitolina, and Iga Swiatek. That list of felled foes features an Australian Open finalist (Collins), a Wimbledon champion (Rybakina), a former world No. 3 (Svitolina), and a five-time slam champ (Swiatek).

Sabalenka is also on fire. The recent Brisbane winner is undefeated this year and her title defense in Melbourne has seen her defeat Sloane Stephens, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Clara Tauson, Mirra Andreeva, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, and Paula Badosa. Sabalenka is playing great, but she has not faced anyone ranked higher than 12th at this tournament and she dropped one set to Pavlyuchenkova in the quarters.

Keys is probably the one woman on the circuit who can go toe-to-toe with Sabalenka in the power department. Now her mental game is catching up, too. The way she handled the semifinal against Swiatek shows that she is ready to take on the pressure of a slam final–her first since the 2018 U.S. Open.

An upset is well within reason.

Pick: Keys in 3

Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.