Fourth-round action at the BNP Paribas Open will get underway on Tuesday with an interesting lineup in the top half of the draw. Three unseeded players remain in Tallon Griekspoor, Marcos Giron, and qualifier Yosuke Watanuki. Seeds Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tommy Paul, Holger Rune, and Arthur Fils are also still alive.
Here are my picks for two of Tuesday’s best matchups.
(10) Tommy Paul vs. (5) Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev and Paul will be facing each other for the fifth time in their careers on Tuesday. Three of their four previous encounters have gone Medvedev’s way, but he has defeated Paul in straight sets only one Paul won their most recent meeting 6-1, 6-4 on the red clay of Rome in 2024.
This obviously isn’t clay at the Indian Wells Masters, but it’s as close to clay as a hard court can get. Just ask Medvedev! Despite all of his complaints, however, the world No. 6 has finished runner-up in Tennis Paradise each of the last two years–losing to Carlos Alcaraz on both occasions. Still, the surfaces favors Paul and the 11th-ranked American also has home-court advantage. He is in awesome form, too, and looks poised to make a return trip to the semifinals of this event–and perhaps even farther.
Pick: Paul in 3
(12) Holger Rune vs. (8) Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitisipas struggled for much of last season–at least relative to his lofty standards–but he started to turn things around with a recent ATP 500 title in Dubai. The ninth-ranked Greek knocked off Karen Khachanov, Matteo Berrettini, and Felix Auger-Aliassime at that tournament and is showing no signs of slowing down in Indian Wells. So far this fortnight he has defeated Thiago Seyboth Wild and Berrettini in straight sets.
Rune is up next for Tsitsipas as the 13th-ranked Dane looks to stay undefeated in the head-to-head series (currently 3-0). It should be noted, though, that they have not completed a match against each other since 2022 (their most recent encounter came in 2023 and Tsitsipas retired at the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals after a mere two games). Rune has advanced in IW with victories over Corentin Moutet and Ugo Humbert, but he still just 8-6 so far this year and his match against Humbert was a three-set thriller. Tsitsipas has been the more impressive player of late and the condition at this tournament are close to ideal for him.
Pick: Tsitsipas in 2
Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.