It’s quarterfinal Friday at the Mubadala Citi Open, where the order of play is intriguing–especially for the host nation. Venus Williams is out, but five Americans remain–one in the women’s draw (Taylor Townsend) and four on the men’s side (Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe, and Brandon Nakashima). An especially blockbuster quarterfinal battle pits Shelton against Tiafoe.
Here are my picks for two of Friday’s best matchups.
(4) Ben Shelton vs. (6) Frances Tiafoe
Shelton and Tiafoe will be facing each other for the fourth time in their careers and for the fourth time at home in the United States. They have split a pair of U.S. Open showdowns in addition to Shelton taking the title at the 2024 Houston tournament via a 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 decision in the final. Their New York scores were 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(7), 6-2 in Shelton’s favor in 2023 (quarterfinals) and 4-6, 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-3 for Tiafoe last year (third round).
Both guys are in stellar form, so another good one should be in the cards. Shelton did not drop a set or even his serve during his first two rounds in Washington, D.C. against Mackenzie McDonald and Gabriel Diallo. Tiafoe got past Aleksandar Kovacevic in three sets before coasting past Flavio Cobolli 6-1, 6-4 on Thursday. An ongoing duel for crowd support could also be on display in this one. Shelton simply thrives on an electric atmosphere, but the fans will be more on Tiafoe’s side since he hails from Washington, D.C. That could be a real factor in a matchup that always seems to be decided by small margins. I’m rolling with the local product.
Pick: Tiafoe in 3
(7) Alex de Minaur vs. (14) Brandon Nakashima
While on the recent grass-court swing, De Minaur talked about being burned out (even though he played well at Wimbledon, where he reached the fourth round before losing to Novak Djokovic in four sets). It’s safe to say that the 13th-ranked Australian is already feeling better on North American hard courts, and he has a result to prove it. De Minaur just got crushed by Jiri Lehecka 6-4, 6-2 at Queen’s Club but got revenge on the Czech with a 7-6(4), 6-7(6), 6-4 victory on Wednesday in Washington, D.C.
Up next for the No. 7 seed on Friday is Nakashima, who won their only previous meeting 6-4, 6-0 on indoor hard courts at the 2021 Antwerp tournament. Four years later, Nakashima has made plenty of strides–but not as many as De Minaur. Although the world No. 32 is a very solid player, he generally struggles to challenge higher-ranked opponents. Nakashima is 2-14 lifetime against top-10 foes, including 0-8 in his last eight. De Minaur may not be in the top 10, but he might as well be. The underdog American is also 0-7 in his last seven matches against top-20 opponents.
Pick: De Minaur in 2
Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.