Spots in the second week of the season’s final Grand Slam will start being handed out on Friday at the U.S. Open, when Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Ben Shelton, Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula, and Mirra Andreeva are among those taking the court.
Here are my picks for three of Friday’s best matchups.
(17) Frances Tiafoe vs. (Q) Jan-Lennard Struff
This is Tiafoe’s favorite tournament, and his results include semifinal performances in 2022 and 2024. He has not lost prior to the quarterfinals since 2021 or prior to the fourth round since 2019. The 27-year-old American is simply a different player in New York–and really at Grand Slams in general. He has advanced so far this week with wins over Yoshihito Nishioka and Martin Damm, while Struff has already won five matches–three in qualifying and then at the expense of Mackenzie McDonald and Holger Rune. That is a lot of tennis for the 35-year-old German, especially considering that he beat Rune in a five-set thriller on Wednesday night.
Pick: Tiafoe in 4
(6) Ben Shelton vs. Adrian Mannarino
Through three head-to-head matches, this has been a fun contrast in styles. Mannarino has won two of their three previous meetings, including in five sets at the 2024 Australian Open. However, a new-and-improved Shelton turned the tide in a big way with a 6-2, 6-3 beatdown at the Toronto Masters a few weeks ago. Wielding a far better, more controlled all-court game than when he lost to Mannarino the first two times, Shelton went on to capture the Toronto title before reaching the quarterfinals in Cincinnati. The 22-year-old American is up to No. 6 in the world and No. 4 in the race to Turin. He was dominant in the first two rounds at Flushing Meadows against Ignacio Buse and Pablo Carreno Busta. Mannarino is also playing great, but the Toronto result is very concerning for the 37-year-old Frenchman and now he has to face Shelton at Shelton’s favorite event.
Pick: Shelton in 4
(7) Novak Djokovic vs. Cameron Norrie
Djokovic and Norrie will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers. The matchup is more fun than Djokovic’s 6-0 record suggests, largely because of a contentious encounter at the 2023 Rome Masters. There will be no love lost between the two on Friday. It could also be competitive, because Djokovic did not look good at all in his first two matches against Learner Tien and Zachary Svajda. Now the 38-year-old is going up against a far more experienced and dangerous opponent in Norrie, who is a former Wimbledon semifinalist (2022) and Indian Wells champion (2021). This actually feels like a winnable match for Norrie…but asking him to get entirely across the finish line might be too much.
Pick: Djokovic in 5
Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.