Either Tomas Machac or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will win his first ATP title on Saturday night, and it will come at the 500-point level.
Machac and Davidovich Fokina will be facing each other for the second time in their careers when they meet again in the Abierto Mexicano Telcel final. Their only previous encounter came in Shanghai last fall, when Machac prevailed 1-6, 7-6(3), 6-4.
Davidovich Fokina should have won that match (he led 6-1, 3-1) and he should already have an ATP title to his name. Two weeks ago in Delray Beach he had double-championship point against Miomir Kecmanovic only to eventually lose 3-6, 6-1, 7-5.
Perhaps that result was a pay-it-forward scenario, because Davidovich Fokina was on the good end of a similar development earlier this week in Acapulco. The 48th-ranked Spaniard was down quadruple-match point in the second-set tiebreaker of his first-round match against Mattia Bellucci but somehow managed to escape. He has since taken out Frances Tiafoe, Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez, and Denis Shapovalov. ADF played two amazing tiebreakers in a 7-6(3), 7-6(1) victory over Shapovalov on Friday night.
Machac has been solid but unspectacular in 2025, with a third-round showing at the Australian Open and a quarterfinal finish in Dallas. The 25th-ranked Czech is now through to his second ATP final following defeats of Jakub Mensik, Daniel Altmaier, Learner Tien, and Brandon Nakashima.
With big pressure amidst high stakes, this figures to be another roller-coaster ride–similar to their Shanghai thriller. I’m giving a slight edge to a red-hot Davidovich Fokina.
Pick: Davidovich Fokina in 3
Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.