Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev are one round away from a potential third consecutive meeting in the BNP Paribas Open final. However, they have two significant–albeit underdog–roadblocks in their way on semifinal Saturday. Alcaraz awaits Jack Draper, while Medvedev faces Holger Rune.
Here are my picks for the two matchups.
(13) Jack Draper vs. (2) Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz and Draper will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-1 in favor of Alcaraz, who got a retirement from Alcaraz while leading two sets to love at this year’s Australian Open. Draper beat the Spaniard 7-6(3), 6-3 last summer on the grass courts of Queen’s Club.
This one should be entertaining and competitive. Alcaraz is the two-time defending champion in Indian Wells and he has not lost a single set at this year’s event. Draper also hasn’t dropped a set and looked especially impressive in his last two outings against Americans Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton. An upset certainly isn’t out of the cards, but Alcaraz simply appears to be in a different league from everyone else in Tennis Paradise–where conditions are perfect for his game.
Pick: Alcaraz in 3
(12) Holger Rune vs. (5) Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev and Rune also squared off at the 2024 Indian Wells Masters, where the Russian prevailed 7-5, 6-4 in the quarterfinals. He leads the head-to-head series 2-1, having also gotten the job done 7-5, 7-5 in the 2023 Rome Masters title match after Rune won 6-3, 6-4 at the 2023 Monte-Carlo Masters.
Although Medvedev has never hidden his disdain for slow conditions in the desert, they are not giving him any problems. The world No. 6 finished runner-up to Alcaraz in both ’23 and ’24, and now he is one win away from a return trip to championship Sunday. Rune is also playing well this fortnight, but Medvedev had his number at this event 12 months ago and that may be the case again in the rematch.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.