It all comes down to this: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner.
The last of 2025 on the ATP Tour is really the only one that we could have between by far the two best players in the world, who will battle for the Nitto ATP Finals on Sunday afternoon in Turin, Italy.
This epic rivalry has defined the 2025 tennis season. Alcaraz and Sinner squared off in three of the four Grand Slam finals and their duel for the year-end No. 1 ranking came to down to the final tournament (Alcaraz would have had to win no more than two matches in Turin for Sinner to have a chance, so the Spaniard wrapped up that honor without any trouble earlier this week). Alcaraz won two of the slam title matches at Roland Garros and the U.S. Open, while Sinner triumphed at Wimbledon. The 22-year-old also prevailed in Rome and Cincinnati–the latter via first-set retirement.
The overall head-to-head series stands at 11-5 in favor of Alcaraz (10-5 at the ATP level) and he has won seven of their last eight encounters. That’s not to say this rivalry hasn’t been competitive of late. Just once during this eight-match stretch has Alcaraz won a completed match in straight sets (this spring in Rome, which was Sinner’s first event back from suspension). The current world No. 1’s French Open triumph came in a five-setter from triple-championship point down.
If Alcaraz has the H2H edge, Sinner has plenty of other advantages heading into this grand finale. He has home-court advantage in Italy, is playing on his preferred indoor hard court, and is in amazing form. The Italian is 14-2 all time at this event and he is on a ridiculous 18-set winning streak dating back to the start of the 2024 year-end championship.
This is Sinner’s third Nitto ATP Finals championship match; it is Alcaraz’s first. The top seed is also 4-0 this week with victories over Alex de Minaur, Taylor Fritz, Lorenzo Musetti, and Auger-Aliassime.
Anything less than an epic match — which Alcaraz and Sinner are accustomed to — would be a disappointment. A slight edge goes to Sinner in front of the home crowd and because of just how amazing his level has been so far inside Inalpi Arena.
Pick: Sinner in 3
Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.