Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will be facing each other for the 16th time in their careers when they clash in the Indian Wells final on Sunday.
Here is my preview and pick for the men’s singles championship match.
(11) Daniil Medvedev vs. (2) Jannik Sinner
The head-to-head series between Sinner and Medvedev could not be any closer heading into the BNP Paribas Open final, as Sinner leads 8-7. However, that doesn’t tell the true story. Sinner lost their first six encounters but has since won eight of nine. They have not squared off since 2024 — when a pair of five-setters at the Australian Open and Wimbledon were split, while Sinner won the other four times.
In 2025, Medvedev didn’t really make it far enough at many tournaments to find himself matched up against Sinner. But that has changed in 2026. Medvedev looks like the 2021 and 2022 version of himself, with an 18-3 record this season that includes titles in Brisbane and Dubai. So far in Tennis Paradise he has ousted Alejandro Tabilo, Sebastian Baez, Alex Michelsen, Jack Draper, and Carlos Alcaraz all in straight sets.
Both Medvedev and Sinner are bidding for their first Indian Wells title. Medvedev is playing in the final for the third time; Sinner is in his first final in the desert. The second-ranked Italian has advanced with straight-set victories over Dalibor Svrcina, Denis Shapovalov, Joao Fonseca, Learner Tien, and Alexander Zverev.
Medvedev could be Sinner’s most difficult test of the fortnight — even tougher than what Fonseca brought to the table in two tiebreakers. Still, it’s hard to look past the extent to which Sinner has dominated this matchup in recent years. Although it will be hot on Sunday afternoon, it won’t be as scorching as it will be next week in Indian Wells. Sinner should be fine physically, and that means the trophy should be in his near future.
Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.