Can anyone stop Jannik Sinner at the Mutua Madrid Open? With Carlos Alcaraz out of the equation, the answer to that question may be no. Both Alcaraz and Sinner were missing from last year’s tournament, opening the door for Casper Ruud to defeat Jack Draper in the championship. Sinner is good to go this time around, so he obviously goes off as a huge title favorite. Two-time champion Alexander Zverev, 2024 runner-up Felix Auger-Aliassime, Ben Shelton, Lorenzo Musetti, and Arthur Fils are among the challengers.
Here are my picks for the second of three clay-court Masters 1000 events.
Mutua Madrid Open
Where: Madrid, Spain
Prize money: 8,235,540 Euros
Top seed: Jannik Sinner
Defending champion: Casper Ruud
Is Sinner a lock for the title? Maybe not. The top half of the draw is absolutely stacked, dealing the top-ranked Italian what could be a somewhat difficult path to the championship match. Last week’s ATP 500 winners, Shelton in Munich and Fils in Barcelona, find themselves in the top half with Sinner. Shelton and Fils are on a collision course for the fourth round, with the winner likely to face Musetti in the quarterfinals and Sinner in the semis. Those guys won’t get caught looking ahead, however. Shelton’s opening match could come against Matteo Berrettini, who famously double-bageled Daniil Medvedev in Monte-Carlo. Fils will potentially go up against Monte-Carlo semifinalist Valentin Vacherot in the third round. Sinner’s road is expected to include Tommy Paul in the fourth round and either Alex de Minaur, Joao Fonseca, or Barcelona runner-up Andrey Rublev in the quarters.
The bottom half is soft by comparison. Joining Zverev — the No. 2 seed and two-time Madrid champion — are Auger-Aliassime (runner-up in 2024), Alexander Bublik, Daniil Medvedev, and defending champion Casper Ruud. Munich runner-up Flavio Cobolli’s first match could be against Gael Monfils, who is making his final trip to the Caja Magica.
Among the first-rounders are Berrettini vs. Raphael Collignon, Tomas Machac vs. Francisco Comesana, Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Alexander Blockx, Terence Atmane vs. Miomir Kecmanovic, Marin Cilic vs. Zizou Bergs, and Fabian Marozsan vs. Ethan Quinn.
Quarterfinal picks: Jannik Sinner over Joao Fonseca, Lorenzo Musetti over Ben Shelton, Felix Auger-Aliassime over Alexander Bublik, and Alexander Zverev over Grigor Dimitrov
Semifinal picks: Sinner over Musetti and Zverev over Auger-Aliassime
Final pick: Sinner over Zverev
Ricky contributes to 10sballs.com and also maintains his own tennis website, The Grandstand. You can follow him on Twitter at @Dimonator.